Quantifying the Trendiness of Trends.

News media often report that the trend of some public health outcome has changed. These statements are frequently based on longitudinal data, and the change in trend is typically found to have occurred at the most recent data collection time point-if no change had occurred the story is less likely to be reported. Such claims may potentially influence public health decisions on a national level. We propose two measures for quantifying the trendiness of trends. Assuming that reality evolves in continuous time, we define what constitutes a trend and a change in trend, and introduce a probabilistic Trend Direction Index. This index has the interpretation of the probability that a latent characteristic has changed monotonicity at any given time conditional on observed data. We also define an index of Expected Trend Instability quantifying the expected number of changes in trend on an interval. Using a latent Gaussian process model, we show how the Trend Direction Index and the Expected Trend Instability can be estimated in a Bayesian framework, and use the methods to analyse the proportion of smokers in Denmark during the last 20 years and the development of new COVID-19 cases in Italy from 24 February onwards.

Effects of Structured Supervised Exercise Training or Motivational Counseling on Pregnant Women's Physical Activity Level: FitMum - Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) during pregnancy is an effective and safe way to improve maternal health in uncomplicated pregnancies. However, compliance with PA recommendations remains low among pregnant women. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of offering structured supervised exercise training (EXE) or motivational counseling on PA (MOT) during pregnancy on moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) level. Additionally, complementary measures of PA using the Pregnancy Physical Activity Questionnaire (PPAQ) and gold standard doubly labeled water (DLW) technique were investigated. The hypotheses were that both EXE and MOT would increase MVPA in pregnancy compared with standard care (CON) and that EXE would be more effective than MOT. In addition, the association between MVPA and the number of sessions attended was explored. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial included 220 healthy, inactive pregnant women with a median gestational age of 12.9 (IQR 9.4-13.9) weeks. A total of 219 women were randomized to CON (45/219), EXE (87/219), or MOT (87/219). The primary outcome was MVPA (minutes per week) from randomization to the 29th gestational week obtained by a wrist-worn commercial activity tracker (Vivosport, Garmin International). PA was measured by the activity tracker throughout pregnancy, PPAQ, and DLW. The primary outcome analysis was performed as an analysis of covariance model adjusting for baseline PA. RESULTS: The average MVPA (minutes per week) from randomization to the 29th gestational week was 33 (95% CI 18 to 47) in CON, 50 (95% CI 39 to 60) in EXE, and 40 (95% CI 30 to 51) in MOT. When adjusted for baseline MVPA, participants in EXE performed 20 (95% CI 4 to 36) minutes per week more MVPA than participants in CON (P=.02). MOT was not more effective than CON; EXE and MOT also did not differ. MVPA was positively associated with the number of exercise sessions attended in EXE from randomization to delivery (P=.04). Attendance was higher for online (due to COVID-19 restrictions) compared with physical exercise training (P=.03). Adverse events and serious adverse events did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Offering EXE was more effective than CON to increase MVPA among pregnant women, whereas offering MOT was not. MVPA in the intervention groups did not reach the recommended level in pregnancy. Changing the intervention to online due to COVID-19 restrictions did not affect MVPA level but increased exercise participation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03679130; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03679130. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043671.

Telemetric Continuous Glucose Monitoring During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Isolated Hospitalized Patients in Denmark: A Randomized Controlled Exploratory Trial.

Objective: To investigate whether telemetric continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in hospitalized and isolated patients with diabetes mellitus and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with better glycemic outcomes and fewer patient health care worker contacts compared to blood glucose monitoring by traditional point-of-care (POC) glucose testing and to investigate the user aspect of implementing a CGM-system in-hospital. Materials and Methods: A randomized controlled exploratory trial was performed on hospitalized and isolated patients with diabetes and COVID-19 from May 2020 until February 2021 at Nordsjællands Hospital, Denmark. Participants were randomized to nonblinded telemetric CGM (as the only glucose monitoring method) or traditional POC glucose testing + blinded CGM. The primary endpoint was time in range (TIR) based on CGM data in both groups. A questionnaire about the user aspect of the CGM system was answered by health care personnel (HCP). Results: We included 64 participants in the analysis, 31 in the CGM group and 33 in the POC glucose group. TIR median was 46% for the CGM group and 68% for the POC glucose group (P = 0.368). The mean glucose value for the CGM group was 11.1 and 10.8 mmol/L in the POC glucose group (P = 0.372). CGM was associated with fewer POC glucose measurements (P < 0.001). Out of 30 HCPs, 28 preferred telemetric CGM over POC glucose testing. Conclusion: Remote glucose monitoring by CGM did not improve glycemic outcomes compared to traditional POC glucose testing, but was associated with fewer patient-personnel contacts, saving time for HCPs performing diabetes-related tasks. Most HCPs preferred CGM. The study is registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov (#NCT04430608).

'Standing together - at a distance': Documenting changes in mental-health indicators in Denmark during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aims: There is a need to document the mental-health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated societal lockdowns. We initiated a large mixed-methods data collection, focusing on crisis-specific worries and mental-health indicators during the lockdown in Denmark. Methods: The study incorporated five data sources, including quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews. The surveys included a time series of cross-sectional online questionnaires starting on 20 March 2020, in which 300 (3×100) Danish residents were drawn every three days from three population groups: the general population (N=1046), families with children (N=1032) and older people (N=1059). These data were analysed by trend analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 32 people aged 24-83 throughout Denmark to provide context to the survey results and to gain insight into people's experiences of the lockdown. Results: Absolute level of worries, quality of life and social isolation were relatively stable across all population groups during the lockdown, although there was a slight deterioration in older people's overall mental health. Many respondents were worried about their loved ones' health (74-76%) and the potential long-term economic consequences of the pandemic (61-66%). The qualitative interviews documented significant variation in people's experiences, suggesting that the lockdown's effect on everyday life had not been altogether negative. Conclusions: People in Denmark seem to have managed the lockdown without alarming changes in their mental health. However, it is important to continue investigating the effects of the pandemic and various public-health measures on mental health over time and across national contexts.